Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls 2019: Who’s Predicting What?

Exit polls prediction  - Sakshi Post

Hyderabad: After the last phase of the 17th Lok Sabha election concluded on Sunday, TV channels flashed exit polls predicting a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi led NDA government. Results will be out on May 23.

Exit polls predict which party could win the elections and releases the result after an hour the polling ends. They are considered more accurate than opinion polls that are conducted before the actual voting begins.

The polls predicted between 242 to 365 for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and between 77 and 164 for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

We have provided for the numbers that each party is likely to get in the 543 seats in the Parliament from each of the exit polls. Have a look:

Times Now-VMR:

NDA: 306

UPA: 132

Others: 104


Republic-CVoter

NDA: 287

UPA: 128

Others: 127


NDTV polls of polls

NDA: 300

UPA: 127

Others: 115

IANS-CVoter

NDA: 287

UPA: 80

Others: NA

Neta-NewsX

NDA: 242

UPA: 164

Others: 136


India-News

NDA: 298

UPA: 118

Others: 127

News18-Ipsos

NDA: 336

UPA: 82

Others: 124


ABP-Nielsen

NDA: 267

UPA: 127

Others: 148

India Today-AXIS My India

NDA: 339-365

UPA: 77-108

Others: 69-95


However, exits polls can't be the determining factor as history shows that it has gone wrong. According to Praveen Chakravarty, chairperson of the Congress Data Analytics Department, he tweeted that 80 per cent of exit poll seat predictions for all parties in large state elections since 2014 are wrong.

Across the globe too, the exit polls prediction has gone wrong. In the Australia election that was held last week, most exit polls got it wrong. Similar was the case of US presidential election in 2016 and that of Brexit.

The common pattern that could be seen in the exit poll prediction was that all of them did not take into account the undercurrent that was brewing in the conservative and ultra-nationalist positions.

In the Indian exit polls too, all of them seem to have considered the surge of Hindu nationalism that will be favouring the BJP.

Also Read: Most Exit Polls Predict Another Term For Modi, NDA Set To Garner Over A Clear Majority

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