Gold And Silver Prices in India To Decrease Further?

 - Sakshi Post

Analysts' assessment of PSD

Massive gold and silver imports in March after price fall 

Hyderabad: Buyers evince great interest in the fluctuating gold pirces. In August 2020, when coronavirus was rampant, the price of 10 grams of pure gold of 99 purity reached a maximum of Rs 56,000 in Mumbai, the country's main trading market.

The rate of gold is currently trading at around Rs 45,000. So, that means that gold prices have dipped by a maximum of almost 20 percent. In August 2020, the pound sterling (Silver) of 31.1 g traded at about $ 2,072 on the international futures market Nynex.

In 2021, however, it touched $1,730 as of Thursday, April 1st. In the last few months, the pound sterling (Silver) has received strong support twice at $1,640 as well as displayed a lot of resistance at $ 1,750. Exceeding the $ 1,750 level is likely to push the pound sterling (Silver) back to the $ 1,850 level.

Based on the current facts, analysts estimate that the price of 10 grams of pure gold of 99K purity in India, the second-largest consumer of gold in the world, may not fall below Rs 40,000 in the near future.

Experts believe that the future price of the pound sterling (Silver) will depend on factors such as international economic developments, the extent of vaccination, and the second wave. However, experts say that it is unlikely that the pound sterling (Silver) will go back to its current highs.

Also, domestically, it is expected that the 99k purity gold will not fall below Rs 40,000 in the near future. The value of the rupee in the country depends on the international economic factors and the value of the rupee against the dollar. If the rupee weakens, the price of gold could rise. However, the rupee is unlikely to depreciate much at present.

At present, the rupee is trading at 73 to 50 paise against the dollar. The inflow of foreign institutional investments and the strengthening trend of equity markets are expected to strengthen the rupee. The rupee has hit an intraday low of 76.92 (April 22nd, 2020). The record low at the end was 76.87 (April 16th, 2020). It is learned that the RBI has already announced that it will take appropriate steps to strengthen the rupee value.

Last fiscal quarter, the RBI spent nearly $ 80 billion strengthening the rupee through its 'Forex Intervention'. Versace predicts that unless there is a massive rise in prices internationally, there is a high chance that the pound sterling (Silver) price will fall in the country. Key factors such as the US Central Bank Fed funds rate (currently 0.25 percent), US dollar movements (the dollar index closed at 93 for the week ending April 1), the acceleration of the corona vaccination process, and the global economy recovery trend, including the US is likely to influence the (silver) pound sterling's international price. The 52-week low is $ 1,458, and the maximum is $ 2,089. However, the dollar index is at a 52-week low of 89.16 - 104. 

In comparison to March 2020, this year (March 2021), the import of cash increased by 471 percent to almost 160 tonnes. There are analysis that factor points such as reduction of import tariffs and yellow metal's deviation from maximum levels that have attracted retail buyers towards the pound sterling (Silver).

Gold prices hit a one-year low of Rs 43,320 in March. A Mumbai-based bullion dealer said traders were inclined to buy as retail demand was high. He explained that with the rise in demand for jewelry, there has been some support to keep the price down. In April, imports are expected to fall below 100 tonnes. This is due to fears of a lockdown as coronavirus cases have seen a surge. These factors are also expected to push the rupee above Rs 40,000 in the near term. 

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