A few key factors are directly impacting the elections of AP. Special category status, the lack of stable governance since AP's formation in 2014 and the unexpected political events and various unresolved issues have put the people in clear dismay. The anti-incumbency also shows up in the recent surveys done by various organisations .
Nellore and Chittoor districts clearly reflect the election heat as leaders are out campaigning in smaller pockets aggressively, not minding the blazing 40's temperature.
In Tirupati town YSRCP fielded former TUDA Chairman and TTD Chairman Bhumana Karunakar Reddy while TDP's sitting Sugunamma is back to test her luck. While the Kapu community decided the previous election here in favour of Sugunamma, reports say that Janasena candidate Chadalawada Krishnamurty will split the Balija votes in favour of Bhumana this time. " People voted for the experience of Chandrababu in 2014, but are terribly let-down and have got a clear taste of his poll-politics. This time, they have decided to give YS Jagan an opportunity.," he says elaborating on the false promises and the disillusionment of people.
Nagiri stands in favour of YSRCP's Roja who won with a slender margin 2014. With her fiery presence in the last 5 years and the overall wave that seems to be in favour of YSRCP, Gali Bhanu of TDP may not give a tough fight to Roja. Roja therefore appears confident. " I am a Telugu daughter and a Tamil daughter-in-law, and hence I have always felt very connected to Nagiri , she smiles. Nagiri as we all.know is the AP-TN border, putting her at an advantage.
Nellore district, a stronghold of YSRCP will add to its 7 seats of 2014, say experts. The tougher fight will be in Nellore town where Minister Narayana is trying every tactic under the sun to win this. Anil Kumar Yadav represents YSRCP in Nellore. The other constituency where the fight is tough is Gudur—a reserved constituency where former YSRCP MP Varaprasad is contesting over TDP candidate Pasham Sunil Kumar who was earlier with YSRCP but was lured into the TDP with heavy monetary rewards, internal sources say. Dr.Varaprasad has been an IAS officer and is quite clear why the public mandate favours Jagan.
In Atmakur Mekapati Gautam Reddy, son of senior leader Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy.KIMS Chairman Bollineni Krishnaiah is contesting here from TDP.
Venkatagiri Velama community has shown its clear support to YSRCP with Saikrishna Yachendra recently joining. They have a support of about 8000 votes which put Anam Ramnarayan Reddy at a slight advantage. Apart from this, Bontu Sarada , the BC leader who recently quit TDP is also in support of YSRCP and hence the TDP sitting MLA K Ramakrishna's chances are further weakened, say analysts.
In Sarvepalli Somireddi Chandramohan Reddy who held a ministry in the TDP Govt has already lost 3 elections in the previous elections. He became an MLC later, as we all know. His opponent YSRCP's Kakani Goverdhan Reddy is all charged up to retain his seat that he won in 2014. Sullurpeta constituency, yet another reserved segment too has a clear pro-YSRCP wave in favour of the sitting MLA Sanjiviah all set to win this. TDP's Parasa Ratnam, former minister faces a lot of internal resistance from his own party men and therefore may have a difficult time fighting this election.
It is clear, overall that the disappointment of the people towards the incumbent TDP rule, coupled with their need for change and the will to bring in fresh governance will decide the election result. To add to this the YSRCP has presented a very rational list of promises that are very feasible and real. The impressive research in finding candidates based on all parameters that may affect the poll both at the ground level and holistically, only puts them at an advantage. Regarding Janasena's role, experts are clear that even if people love stars, they are in no mood to dabble with possibilities but would rather invest their vote into a more stable presence. It is high time AP saw growth, they explain.
The Author is the Executive Editor of Sakshi TV